Loonie is falling

Global money manager AllianceBernstein says there are fundamental reasons the loonie is falling and sees it going as low as 80 cents US.

Photograph by: National Post , Financial Post

On a day when it took a snick over US0.90 cents to buy one C$ — the lowest level in the past four years — guests at a Toronto luncheon presumably wanted to hear that better news lies ahead for the local currency.

If that’s what they

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wanted to hear then they were disappointed with the luncheon address given by Joe Carson, the director of global economic research at New-York-based AllianceBernstein, a global money manager with US$400 billion under management.

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Carson expects that in “fair value” terms it will take at least C$1.20 and possibly as much as $1.30 to buy one US$. “There’s another 10%-15% to go,” Carson said at the luncheon, the same day the Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz, indicated that “the timing and direction of the next change to the policy rate will depend on how new information influences this balance of risks.”

Three reasons underpin Carson’s forecast:

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Cameron Wilkes

Cameron Wilkes

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CENTURY 21 Dome Realty Inc.
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