Happy New Year!
Once again it’s the beginning of a new year and I hope you have many great plans and goals for 2010. I would like to share a saying that I value and may help you reach your goals, “a goal without a plan is just a wish.” So make a plan.
Many of the people I speak with ask what is going to happen this year in real estate. In case you are wondering the same thing, I thought I would share with you some of CMHC’s predictions and my personal views.
CMHC: CMHC released its latest forecast for the Ottawa area at its annual Ottawa Housing Outlook Conference and says that spillover demand coming from the existing home market will set the foundations for a strong rebound in new home construction next year with 5,900 new properties to be built.
“Ottawa’s housing market will remain healthy next year as sales increase and housing starts rebound,” says the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. “Once again, Ottawa’s housing market has shown itself to be resilient in periods of economic slowdown,’’ comments Sandra Perez Torres, CMHC’s Ottawa Senior Market Analyst.
My Personal Views: I would like to start by clarifying that I don’t possess the forecasting tools or the statistical skills to do what CMHC does to predict their forecast. However, I do have 24 years of local real estate experience that I put to use every year to forecast my personal real estate production and my company’s yearly production.
Starting this month, market sales will take off like a ROCKET and this should sustain itself until late spring or even early summer. Historically, I have found that whenever Ottawa’s listing inventory (homes for sale) is low in the later part of the year (November, December) and there is an active pool of buyers as there is now, January starts off very strong and continues into the spring market. This is great news for sellers, but can make buying a little stressful.
Predicting past the beginning of summer is a challenge. Why is it a challenge? Because we will be experiencing something new in Ottawa and Ontario, the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST). Fortunately, I have had the opportunity to speak with some of my east-coast colleagues who have had HST for years. When it first arrived in their province, they too were worried and didn’t know what would happen to their market and expected the real estate market to drop. The change did slow down sales for a while, but once it was accepted and everyone knew it wasn’t going away, sales continued again.
The Ottawa real estate market continues to be sheltered from the rest of Canada because of our government-employed population. This is just one of the many benefits we all share by living in this great city.
I would be interested in your predictions for 2010, so feel free to e-mail me at email@example.com or call me (613) 564-0021.