Peep Peep. Sunny days, clear skies, and a healthy market outlook for Spring. Tell them a little birdie told you!

Sunny days, clear skies, and a healthy market outlook for Spring.   Bank rates remaining manageable and Inventory and Sales in Balanced territory. See below for more detailed information and if you have any questions or thoughts on the market, please do not hesitate to contact me. Denise

CREA Updates Resale Housing Forecast

OTTAWA – March 5 2012 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its quarterly forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations in 2012, and extended it to 2013.

National home sales activity for 2012 and 2013 is projected to remain roughly on par with the 10 year average for annual activity, as interest rates remain low and further economic and job growth continue to support Canada’s housing market.

National resale housing activity is forecast to reach 458,800 units in 2012, representing an annual increase of 0.3 per cent compared to 457,305 sales in 2011. Rising demand in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Nova Scotia, is expected to offset softer activity in British Columbia, Ontario, and New Brunswick.

“The continuation of low interest rates is good news for housing and for the economy,” said Gary Morse, CREA’s President. “Local housing market outlooks differ according to their respective economic prospects, so buyers and sellers should talk to their local REALTOR® to better understand housing market prospects in their area.”

In 2013, national sales are forecast to ebb by 0.3 per cent to 457,200 units, with modest gains in all provinces except Ontario as economic and job growth picks up later this year and builds into 2013.

Multi-million dollar sales activity in Vancouver caused the national average price to temporarily spike in early 2011. This phenomenon is not expected to recur in 2012. As a result, while prices are projected to hold steady near current levels, the national average price is forecast to dip by 1.1 per cent in 2012 to $359,100. Prices are expected to rise modestly in 2013, with the national average inching upward 0.9 per cent to $362,300 at the national level.

“CREA’s updated housing market forecast reflects recent & prospective trends for provincial home sales activity coupled with prevailing provincial economic outlooks,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Risks to the Canadian economic outlook remain elevated owing to the European sovereign debt quagmire, but the continuation of low interest rates is the silver lining. So long as the European debt crisis is contained and a global economic recession avoided, low interest rates will support Canadian home sales and prices. Recent trends are reassuring, but interest rates remaining low for longer will doubtless keep the Canadian housing market under scrutiny for signs of overheating.”

* Provincial weighted average price for Quebec; does not affect unweighted national average price calculations. Information on Quebec’s weighted average price calculation can be found at: http://www.fciq.ca/immobilier-statistiques-definitions.php

About The Canadian Real Estate Association

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

 

Bank of Canada keeps interest rates on hold

The Bank of Canada kept its trend-setting Bank Rate at 1.25 per cent on January 17th, 2012. This marks the 11th consecutive policy meeting in which borrowing costs have been left unchanged.

While recognizing that the outlook for the global economy had deteriorated and that uncertainty had increased since it released its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank also made those same observations at its previous meeting on December 6th.

Economic growth in Canada had more momentum in the second half of 2011 than the Bank projected in its October MPR, but it expects the pace going forward to slow by more modest than previously expected, due largely to factors outside Canadian borders. This reiterates statements made in December 2011. On the upside, the Bank said that “very favourable financing conditions are expected to buttress consumer spending and housing activity.”

The Bank releases its updated forecast for Canadian economic growth. It now estimates that the economy grew by 2.4 per cent in 2011 compared to the initial estimate of 2.1 per cent, owing to the better than expected end to the year.

The Bank projects growth of 2.0 per cent in 2012 compared to 1.9 per cent in the October MPR, and 2.8 per cent in 2013, down slightly from the previous 2013 forecast of 2.9 per cent, with the big picture being that past and current growth estimates have been revised upward at the expense of future economic growth.

“The Bank said it expects the pace of growth going forward to moderate by more than initially thought, but the forecast for growth this year has actually been raised slightly,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “That reflects a weaker than previously expected growth profile for the first half of 2012, followed by an acceleration in the second half of the year.”

“The Bank reiterated that its outlook remains subject to downside risks from the sovereign debt issue in Europe. Recent credit-rating downgrades to much of the euro zone point to potential contagion by way of a drop in financial market liquidity,” he added. “The bottom line is that the Bank rate is not going to be going up anytime soon, and we may see rates lowered should downside risks materialize.”

The Bank noted that “while the economy appears to be operating with less slack than previously assumed, it is only anticipated to return to full capacity by the third quarter of 2013, one quarter earlier than was expected in October.” Overall, inflation expectations remain “well-anchored.”

A number of financial institutions have recently dropped their five-year lending rates to a record low of 2.99 per cent. This is down considerably from the advertised five-year rate of 5.29 per cent when the Bank last met on December 6th, 2011.

The Bank will make its next scheduled rate announcement on March 8th, 2012.

http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/interest_rate_trends.htm

 

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Bank of Canada keeps interest rates on hold

The Bank of Canada kept its trend-setting Bank Rate at 1.25 per cent on March 8th, 2012. This marks the 12th consecutive policy meeting in which borrowing costs have been left unchanged.

The Bank said that the heightened uncertainty around the global economic outlook had decreased in the weeks since the Bank released its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

That said, the global economy is still expected to grow at a pace below its long-term average owing to deleveraging in advanced economies.

The Bank noted that U.S. growth was proceeding at a modest pace amid recent signs of life in the labour market, and that while Chain’s economy was slowing, its rate of growth is still high; however, commodity prices are currently higher than anticipated.

Specifically, the price of oil has been pushed higher by recent geo-political concerns. The Bank warned that if sustained, higher oil prices could ultimately dampen the aforementioned improvement in global economic momentum.

Focusing in on the Canadian economy, the Bank said that the outlook for the Canadian economy had improved, though only marginally, from the January MPR. The Bank expects Canadian household spending to remain high as households add to their debt burden. This was characterized as the biggest domestic risk to the outlook.

Net exports have seen some improvement from increased U.S. demand, although they are still being held in check by the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.

The Bank said that inflation had been higher than previously expected owing to reduced slack in the economy and higher oil prices. That said, inflation is still expected to moderate in the second quarter of the year before returning to its two per cent target for the remainder of the forecast horizon.

“Financial markets still expect interest rates to be hold until well into next year, and today’s announcement confirms the Bank is perfectly happy to sit on the sidelines, and is no closer to raising rates now than it was in January,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump.

As of March 8th, 2012, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 5.24 per cent. This is down 0.05 percentage points from 5.29 per cent on January 17th, when the Bank made its last policy interest rate announcement.

The Bank will make its next scheduled rate announcement on April 17th, 2012.

http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/interest_rate_trends.htm

(CREA 03/08/2012)

 

CREA Updates Resale Housing Forecast

OTTAWA – March 5 2012 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its quarterly forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations in 2012, and extended it to 2013.

National home sales activity for 2012 and 2013 is projected to remain roughly on par with the 10 year average for annual activity, as interest rates remain low and further economic and job growth continue to support Canada’s housing market.

National resale housing activity is forecast to reach 458,800 units in 2012, representing an annual increase of 0.3 per cent compared to 457,305 sales in 2011. Rising demand in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Nova Scotia, is expected to offset softer activity in British Columbia, Ontario, and New Brunswick.

“The continuation of low interest rates is good news for housing and for the economy,” said Gary Morse, CREA’s President. “Local housing market outlooks differ according to their respective economic prospects, so buyers and sellers should talk to their local REALTOR® to better understand housing market prospects in their area.”

In 2013, national sales are forecast to ebb by 0.3 per cent to 457,200 units, with modest gains in all provinces except Ontario as economic and job growth picks up later this year and builds into 2013.

Multi-million dollar sales activity in Vancouver caused the national average price to temporarily spike in early 2011. This phenomenon is not expected to recur in 2012. As a result, while prices are projected to hold steady near current levels, the national average price is forecast to dip by 1.1 per cent in 2012 to $359,100. Prices are expected to rise modestly in 2013, with the national average inching upward 0.9 per cent to $362,300 at the national level.

“CREA’s updated housing market forecast reflects recent & prospective trends for provincial home sales activity coupled with prevailing provincial economic outlooks,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Risks to the Canadian economic outlook remain elevated owing to the European sovereign debt quagmire, but the continuation of low interest rates is the silver lining. So long as the European debt crisis is contained and a global economic recession avoided, low interest rates will support Canadian home sales and prices. Recent trends are reassuring, but interest rates remaining low for longer will doubtless keep the Canadian housing market under scrutiny for signs of overheating.”

* Provincial weighted average price for Quebec; does not affect unweighted national average price calculations. Information on Quebec’s weighted average price calculation can be found at: http://www.fciq.ca/immobilier-statistiques-definitions.php

About The Canadian Real Estate Association

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

 

Canadian home sales pull back in January

OTTAWA – February 15, 2012 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national resale housing activity retreated in January 2012 from the strong finish reported for December 2011.

Highlights:

  • Home sales were down 4.5% from December to January.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 4.0% above levels in January 2011, and stood even with the 5 and 10 year averages for January sales.
  • The number of newly listed homes edged down 1.4% from December to January.
  • With sales down by more than new listings, the national market shifted further into balanced territory.
  • The national average home price was up less than 2% year-over-year in January, ranking it among the smallest increases of the past year.

Sales activity recorded through the MLS® Systems of real estate Boards and Associations in Canada fell 4.5 per cent from December 2011 to January 2012. This marks the first monthly decline in national activity since August 2011 and the biggest monthly decline since July 2010. The monthly decline reversed a string of monthly increases over the closing months of last year, and returned national activity to where it stood at the end of the third quarter of 2011.

“The national housing market is stabilizing and remains well balanced,” said Gary Morse, CREA’s President. “That said, forecasts for economic and job growth going forward vary widely for different parts of the country, suggesting a possible continuation of a softening trend in some markets, as well as the potential that demand will pick up based on strong fundamentals in others. All real estate is local, so talk to your local REALTOR® to understand how price trends in your neighbourhood are shaping up.”

Activity was down in over half of all local markets in January from the previous month. Led by declines in Greater Toronto and Montréal, demand also softened in a number of other major urban centres including the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, and Greater Vancouver.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity was up four per cent from year-ago levels in January, the smallest year-over-year increase since last May. As was the case in a number of months last year, actual sales in January 2012 stood close to the five and ten year average for the month.

The number of newly listed homes edged down 1.4 per cent on a month-over-month basis in January following a 2.9 per cent increase in December. The monthly decline in new supply reflects a drop in new listings in a number of Canada’s largest urban centres, which offset a jump in new listings in Vancouver.

Sales fell in January shifting the national market back towards the mid-point of balanced territory and reversing the recent trend which had seen the market becoming tighter over the final four months of 2011. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 53.8 per cent in January, down from 55.5 per cent in December and 55.4 per cent in November.

Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 per cent, 60 per cent of local markets were balanced in January. Compared to December, there were fewer buyers’ and sellers’ markets, and a greater number of balanced markets.

The number of months of inventory stood at six months at the end of January on a national basis, up from 5.7 months in December 2011 and returning it to where it stood in October 2011. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in January 2012 was $348,178, representing an increase of 1.2 per cent from its year-ago level. This ranks among the smallest increases since late 2010.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national average home price rose 1.6 per cent on a month-over-month basis, marking a rebound from a decline of similar magnitude in December. This pattern mirrors the one playing out in the newly-launched MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), published on February 6.

“Year-over-year comparisons in the national average price are expected to become volatile and may turn negative, reflecting average price developments in the first half of 2011 in Vancouver,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “At that time, high-end home sales in Vancouver’s priciest neighbourhoods surged to all-time record levels, which skewed the national average price upward considerably. A replay of this phenomenon is not expected this year. As a result, comparisons for national average price to year-ago levels over the coming months will reflect an upwardly skewed base effect. For this reason, year-over-year comparisons should be kept in perspective. Developments in the MLS® HPI will provide important guidance on price trends, since it is not affected by the problem of compositional shifts in the mix of sales activity.”

The MLS® HPI also takes into account the contributions toward the price of a home made by a broad range of quantitative and qualitative housing features, allowing it to track Canadian home price trends better than any other measure.

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas.

Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/media.htm.

 

Bank of Canada keeps interest rates on hold

The Bank of Canada kept its trend-setting Bank Rate at 1.25 per cent on January 17th, 2012. This marks the 11th consecutive policy meeting in which borrowing costs have been left unchanged.

While recognizing that the outlook for the global economy had deteriorated and that uncertainty had increased since it released its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank also made those same observations at its previous meeting on December 6th.

Economic growth in Canada had more momentum in the second half of 2011 than the Bank projected in its October MPR, but it expects the pace going forward to slow by more modest than previously expected, due largely to factors outside Canadian borders. This reiterates statements made in December 2011. On the upside, the Bank said that “very favourable financing conditions are expected to buttress consumer spending and housing activity.”

The Bank releases its updated forecast for Canadian economic growth. It now estimates that the economy grew by 2.4 per cent in 2011 compared to the initial estimate of 2.1 per cent, owing to the better than expected end to the year.

The Bank projects growth of 2.0 per cent in 2012 compared to 1.9 per cent in the October MPR, and 2.8 per cent in 2013, down slightly from the previous 2013 forecast of 2.9 per cent, with the big picture being that past and current growth estimates have been revised upward at the expense of future economic growth.

“The Bank said it expects the pace of growth going forward to moderate by more than initially thought, but the forecast for growth this year has actually been raised slightly,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “That reflects a weaker than previously expected growth profile for the first half of 2012, followed by an acceleration in the second half of the year.”

“The Bank reiterated that its outlook remains subject to downside risks from the sovereign debt issue in Europe. Recent credit-rating downgrades to much of the euro zone point to potential contagion by way of a drop in financial market liquidity,” he added. “The bottom line is that the Bank rate is not going to be going up anytime soon, and we may see rates lowered should downside risks materialize.”

The Bank noted that “while the economy appears to be operating with less slack than previously assumed, it is only anticipated to return to full capacity by the third quarter of 2013, one quarter earlier than was expected in October.” Overall, inflation expectations remain “well-anchored.”

A number of financial institutions have recently dropped their five-year lending rates to a record low of 2.99 per cent. This is down considerably from the advertised five-year rate of 5.29 per cent when the Bank last met on December 6th, 2011.

The Bank will make its next scheduled rate announcement on March 8th, 2012.

http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/interest_rate_trends.htm

 
 

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Denise Liboiron

Denise Liboiron

REALTORĀ®
CENTURY 21 All-Pro Realty (1993) Ltd., Brokerage*
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