The Real Estate Market is changing in the Okanagan Shuswap

When we look back over the last 25 years of trends we find that there are 2 statistics within these stats which have shown to consistently predict what is going on; absorption and inventory. The reason for this is that these 2 statistics are both portraying that same 2  entities, "supply and demand". Supply and demand predict what is going to happen to sales and prices. The most accurate way to utilize these stats is to compare "running averages". With running averages we compare average of the last 12 months of any statistic to the previous 12 month period. These 12 month average caparisons eliminate spikes and short term variances. I have calculated the comparisons of the 12 month running averages for the 4 main statistics for each zone (Single Family Residential); sales, inventory, absorption and Median price. What they indicate is that the Central and Shuswap zones are following a typical recovery leg of the cycle; rising absorption, falling inventory, rising sales activity and slowly rising prices. The North Zone is softening. Although sales in our Vernon office are up substantially over last year the board averages are at very best flat. Although prices are up 2.6% the other stats are going in the wrong direction. That is always a little dangerous because prices are always the last stat to change.It will be interesting to watch this to see if it turns into an actual correction or is simply a burp (highly technical term I know)  Have a great month.
Central Okanagan
  • Sales up 7.7%
  • Inventory down 10.7%
  • Absorption up 21.1%
  • Median Price up 6.3%
North Okanagan
  • Sales down 8.3%
  • Inventory down 3.0%
  • Absorption down 7.1%
  • Median Price up 2.6%
  • Sales up 14.6%
  • Inventory down 13.1%
  • Absorption up 3.1 %
  • Median Price up 7.4%

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