Alberta leading the way

I'm sure we all know Alberta has a great oil and gas industry. I found this great article in the Calgary Herald I had to share.  Looks like another soild year for your oil industry workers.  Hope you enjoy the article and the upcoming august long weekend. I'm always available to talk about your real estate needs.


Alberta economy to lead Canadian economic growth in 2012


But uncertainty for future capital spending

Alberta will lead the nation this year in economic growth.

Alberta will lead the nation this year in economic growth.

Photograph by: MARA

CALGARY — The Alberta economic outlook is generally positive with the highest rate of growth for all provinces of 3.8 per cent this year, says the Conference Board of Canada in its latest forecast released Friday.

“But weak natural gas prices and volatile crude oil prices — particularly the wide spread between Canadian crude and the international benchmark – are leading to uncertainty about future capital spending plans in the energy sector,” said the board.

The board forecasts that prices will remain sufficiently elevated so that energy sector investment continues to grow strongly in Alberta. In addition, the province has positive outlooks for employment, income growth and consumer spending, it said.

In 2013, Alberta’s economic growth of 3.0 per cent is forecast to be second in the country behind only Saskatchewan at 3.4 per cent.

Alberta will lead the country in employment growth in each of the next two years with 2.9 per cent this year and 2.6 per cent in 2013. Nationally, employment growth is expected at 1.2 per cent and 1.9 per cent this year and next year.

The board said that weakening growth in emerging markets, Europe’s fiscal and economic woes, and sluggish job creation in the United States are weighing on growth in the provincial economies. The Provincial Outlook-Summer 2012 forecasts solid growth in Western Canada this year and next. Central and Atlantic Canadian economies will slowly gain traction over the same period.

Nationally, growth is forecast for 2.1 per cent this year and 2.4 per cent next year.

“For the most part the outlook for the provinces remains positive, despite the bumpy ride in the short term,” said Marie Christine Bernard, associate director of the Provincial Outlook. “Interest in developing natural resources across Canada will provide a solid foundation for job creation and income prospects in the years to come, so that stronger economic growth can be expected next year and in 2014.”

The swoon in prices for many commodities in recent months will have an impact on resource sector profits. Most metals and minerals prices, however, remain relatively high – which will continue to drive exploration activity and new mine construction, said the board.

“Key economic indicators have been positive so far this year for Alberta, with good growth in employment, income, and consumer spending,” said the board’s report.

“Weaker service-sector growth will be largely responsible for the easing of bottom-line growth next year. Stricter mortgage requirements will keep a lid on housing demand and slow the growth in the finance, insurance, and real estate industry in 2013. Wholesale and retail trade will also advance at a more moderate, yet sustainable, pace.”

In a recent report, TD Economics forecast Alberta to lead the country in economic growth both in 2012 (3.4 per cent) and in 2013 (2.8 per cent), but it’s not predicting “the return to the unbridled exuberance of pre-recession times.”

Canadian economic growth during those two years is forecast for 2.1 per cent and 2.0 per cent respectively.

“Alberta’s economy has been on a wild ride over the past several years. After suffering through a difficult recession in 2008-09, the economy has enjoyed a solid recovery since 2010,” said TD Economics. “Supported by accelerating growth in the oil sector and rapid population gains, real GDP advanced at an estimated blistering 5.2 per cent last year, more than twice the national average, and with scorching population growth to boot.

“Indeed, last year’s pace of economic expansion was reminiscent of that chalked up during the 2006-08 boom years. Still, few observers – including ourselves – are predicting the return to the unbridled exuberance of pre-recession times. Still-low natural gas prices are one key factor that is likely to keep economic growth in check.”


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Gavin Heintz

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