A Report by Vancouver Sun
Another healthy jump in real estate sales across the Lower Mainland in June is putting some areas “on the cusp” of a seller’s market where demand outstrips supply and pushes prices higher, according to reports released Thursday by the region’s major real estate boards.
The most recent sales results fit with Central 1 Credit Union’s latest housing forecast, which estimates that the surprise cut in mortgage rates earlier this year will produce a modest, steady rise in housing demand even as interest rates move higher in coming years.
Central 1 expects the average posted five-year mortgage rate to rise from the current 4.9 per cent to 5.75 per cent through 2017, which will dampen sales somewhat, according to senior economist Bryan Yu, but won’t be enough to overwhelm economic growth and rising prices.
Yu’s estimate is that the median price for a Metro Vancouver detached home this year will hit $820,000, a 15-per-cent increase over last year, and reflects the demand for single-family houses versus condominiums, which have seen more modest gains.
His forecast is for Metro Vancouver prices, on all property types, to rise 5.2 per cent by the end of 2014, 2.5 per cent in 2015, and close to 3.5 per cent for 2016 and 2017.