The most important thing to remember with any real estate market forecast is that real estate is a very local phenomenon. So, while the global, national, provincial and city level indicators affect you, their specific effects are more localized. It is absolutely imperative to understand how these indicators apply to your specific property and to your specific financial situation. It is always best to call and ask for a personalized one-to-one consultation. That is why I am here; to provide a Powerful Local Focus with a Global Perspective.
Short of having a crystal ball, let's look at the indicators starting with a real estate category that is rapidly increasing.
The Condo Market: What's interesting is that condo rental demand is very strong, leading to some widely-reported bidding wars on rental units. This will be a key trend to watch. A strong rental market is unquestionably supportive of real estate values. While prices flat line and rents increase, the rent to value ratios are getting better. This will drive the investors back in. Not so much the 'flippers' but the 'buy and hold' kind of investors.
Single Homes: It is important to understand that this group is gaining value predominantly due to the value in land. By adding the land from Oakville, the Province of Ontario recently increased the amount of Greenbelt. (Keep up to date with developments like this through my Facebook page). Notice on the graph that the housing starts for single homes has been dropping consistently since 2002.
Interest Rates: The economy and the labour market will likely remain weak in 2013. The real estate market has slowed down due to the tightening of mortgage rules. The slowing GDP trend could keep the interest rates low as low interest rates tend to keep the economy propped. How this applies to your specific situations depends on a lot of factors, such as your ability to take on loans, existing debt, debt allocation among various assets, savings, your personal income forecast etc.
Population Growth: Population growth is a real simple indicator of demand. We gain more and more people each year. They need to live somewhere, so they will rent, buy or move in with relatives. Any of those 3 situations shake up the real estate world around them and give the activity a boost. In recent years, we have always added to the population in Greater Toronto Area. The good news is, recent newcomers are bringing a lot more money than their predecessors.
Other Markets: With British Columbia, especially Vancouver, taking a hit and Alberta market becoming more reasonable, the focus shifts to other major cities like Toronto and Montreal. The international buyers also look to the immediate south, and as the U.S. market picks up, the activity is going to start to come back to Canada.
Of course, as the year unfolds, I will report on the updated market conditions. I wish you a very happy 2013 however only you can ensure that it is happy by taking action. Take some time out and talk to me, even if you are not planning to buy or sell. Who knows, there might be an opportunity or two. Make yourself your number 1 priority.
Formally educated as an Architect, Jagdeep Singh is a Toronto REALTOR™ consulting on both resale real estate and new developments. Powerful Local Focus on Real Estate with a Global Perspective™
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