If you remember my May 2014 market posts - in words or in pictures - you'll recall that May produced sales numbers greater than anytime since June 2011. Well, the trend has continued. The Greater Vancouver residential market has been leaning toward favouring Sellers for the past several months, with some pockets and neighbourhoods officially in Sellers market territory for some months. However, it wasn't until May that the sales-to-actives ratio hit the statistically significant 'sellers market' number for Greater Vancouver overall. That statistic marker is 20%.
- May 2014 hit 20.4%
- June hit 21.3%!
Remember, this post is talking regional, broad information, so you might feel quite differently about your neighbourhood and could be exactly right. As Ray Harris says, “While these numbers provide high level trends, it’s important to know that changes in prices always vary depending on neighbourhood and property type."
So lets turn information into knowledge. What does this data mean? In my opinion, there are two take-aways.
- Even though this 20% sales-to-active statistic is a marker for a Sellers market, the reality on the ground lags behind slightly. Competition is hot amongst Buyers for good quality, accurately-priced property, but prices being pushed up is still the exception instead of the norm. So while I agree that Sellers are favoured by the numbers, I would still label Greater Vancouver as a Balanced-but-near-Sellers-market. Take-away: If you're a Buyer, be ready to compete for good properties, but at prices that are close to where they've been for a bit. “Over the last three years, we’ve seen changes in demand yet home prices at the regional level have remained relative stability,” Harris said.
- If July extends the trend, I'll have a different opinion. Should we have 3 back to back months of Sellers market statistics, I would call it as such and believe prices will rise more significantly. Take-away: If you're a Buyer and thinking "Now or this fall?", I would strongly encourage now. I absolutely don't believe prices will decrease and wouldn't be surprised to see stronger than normal increases over the next few months. If you're a Seller, you are in a good position.
Here's how the statistics break down for Greater Vancouver.
Area (Vancouver West vs. Vancouver East) and sub-area (Mount Pleasant, Renfrew, etc.) details are available upon request.
SALES: 3,406 - June 2014
- 28.9% increase over 2,642 sales in June 2013
- 3.7% increase over 3,286 sales in May 2014
- 0.6% increase vs 10-year average of 3,386
DETACHED HOME SALES: 1,462 - June 2014
- 32.7% increase over 1,102 sales in June 2013
- 58.7% increase over 921 sales in June 2012
APARTMENT/CONDO SALES: 1,308 - June 2014
- 22.5% increase over 1,068 sales in June 2013
- 27.5% increase over 1,026 sales in June 2012
ATTACHED HOME SALES: 636 - June 2014
- 34.7% increase over 472 sales in June 2013
- 53.3% increase over 415 sales in June 2012
HPI BENCHMARK PRICES:
- All residentail in Greater Vancouver: $628,200. 4.4% increase over June 2013
- Detached homes: $976,700. 6.2% increase over June 2013
- Apartment/Condo: $378,000. 2.4% increase over June 2013
- Attached homes: $471,200. 3.1% increase over June 2013
NEW LISTINGS: 5,339 - June 2014
- 9.5% increase over 4,874 new listings in June 2013
- 10.1% decline vs 5,936 new listings in May 2014
TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS: 16,011 - June 2014
- 7.4% decline vs June 2013
- 0.4% decline vs May 2014