Listing Inventory Update Nov 24 2008

Summary - Listings Pile up, sales slow, rental market softens

Coal Harbour

Active Listings: 268

Sold last 30 days: 5

Month's of inventory at 30-day sales rate: 54

Result: Downward price pressure

Cause: Original owners/investors/prospectors attempting to cash in en masse.

By-product: Many would be sellers are beginning to turn to the rental market thinking conditions will improve in the Spring

Synopsis

Numerous investors and prospectors are attempting to cash out of Downtown Vancouver's condo market en masse. The result is a swell in active listing inventory and further downward price pressure. There is some good news, however: Many unhappy would-be sellers who are not willing to accept the new pricing reality of the Vancouver Real Estate market are beginning to delist their properties and add them to the rental pool instead. This is causing a rapid softening of rental rates. I estimate that rental rates have come off 10% in the past month and if the current trends continue, we'll no doubt see further erosion.

Anything over approx 10 months of active listing inventory means downward price pressure. We are fluctuating anywhere between 15 and 40+ months lately. It appears that every time there's a major media announcement about another bank or major company teetering on the brink, buying comes to a standstill. Buyers are acting on the notion that things will get worse so they aren't in a rush. There are a lot of qualified buyers out there just waiting and watching and are only acting when a deal really stands out.

The numbers for the entire Downtown Vancouver area are similarly grim to those of the Coal Harbour sub-area:

Active Listings: 1609

Sold last 30 days: 49

Month's of inventory at 30-day sales rate: 33

Result: Downward price pressure

My advice

All roads point to an additional retraction in value of 10%-20% in the next year and some say it could be as bad as 50% in the downtown Vancouver condo market. If you are really serious about selling, now is the time to find the market. Waiting and seeing will most likely result in further losses.

What should you do if you are thinking of selling?

If you are considering selling your condo, call me. Everybody has a unique and different situation and my primary goal is to help each of you determine how best to maximize your investment. Let's talk about your individual scenario so you have all the information you need to make an informed decision. Now is the time for honest, straight talk, and that's what I promise to deliver.

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