No doubt you and I both have been hearing, viewing and "cafe-talking" about the impending real estate doom that the press (and a bold few) have been predicting of late - "yes the wall has cracked my friend - so hang on." Always an interesting read from those sitting in an office - using pure statistics from what has happened - formulating the future from - well - what has happened. So what - has happened ?
Fact - buyers are taking their time with the amount of inventory now at their disposal - hence the activity has lessened. Note - activity, not price. Fact - foreign investors (voluntarily or otherwise) have seemingly taken a breather this season. Fact - Bank of Canada as of today is holding steady on record low interest rates. Fact - take a look around the city - the construction cranes have returned - fresh inventory. So why would anyone rush to the shore - with this impending home price tsunami inbound - to wipe out record home value gains ? That of course will be answered in the next "official" spring market - once those on the sidelines who, yet again held off on purchases - reach their own tipping point. Life goes on.
I am asked daily - what actually drives the Vancouver Real Estate market ? Why does it seem to buck most trends and why - after presenting all these negative articles over the last 4 years - the powers that be have been on average, wrong. Here are some points to ponder but make no mistake - the signs are there that we are going to see a price "adjustment". Not a prayer I am going to tag a percentage on that guess and yes - it is still a guessing game at this point. But I do question anyone who says we are going to hit the 30-40% range in home value decline. Do you really think buyers would sit on the sidelines - that long - before entering the market ? We go as others go - and it only takes one person to hit the dance floor. Ahhh yes - high school memories.
Fact - Vancouver is a world destination - located in the best country in the world. Fact - migration to the area is second only to Toronto. Fact - young families, single professionals and baby boomers are opting for condo living and convenience - fewer single family homes are being built due to lot values and location. Fact - commuters have had enough with costs in both fuel and time. (Telus Gardens almost sold out the entire project to its employees and Marine Gateway - sitting at a Canada Line station - has generated record sales.) Fact - Vancouver offers lifestyle - period.
"If you build it - they will come." Nervous developers are still chiming this tune but know very well - they might come but - will take their time buying. In the meantime we are most certainly at the mercy of world economics. Much larger countries are in a death match with recovery and say what you will - but we are in the fight as well - resource rich or not. On the positive side - Vancouver seems to answer every bell. The future ? Well that simply depends on how many rounds it takes - to find a winner.
Contact me anytime for a chat - on real estate - for your specific needs and/or wants. Straight talk - straight answers.