Housing Forecasts from CMHC

 According to the report released by CMHC in February,2012 which is exactly reproduce as Below:

Resale prices will rise modestly :

Balanced market conditions are expected in most local markets. The average MLS® price is expected to rise modestly over the forecast horizon. For 2011, the average MLS® price was just above $363,000. 2012 will see a moderate increase to $368,900, while 2013 will see further growth to $379,000.

Housing Forecasts

Canadian housing starts increased over the course of 2011. On a seasonally adjusted basis, quarterly housing starts grew quickly during the first nine months of 2011. By the fourth quarter, however, starts had moderated somewhat. All-in-all, total housing starts were up 2.1 per cent to 193,950 units last year. Looking ahead, starts are expected to slightly moderate during 2012 and then start to increase over the course of 2013.

Given the heightened degree of economic and financial uncertainty, an array of economic scenarios was considered to generate a range for the housing outlook in 2012 and 2013. Accordingly, it is expected that starts will be between 164,000 and 212,700 units in 2012 and between 168,900 and 219,300 units in 2013. CMHC’s point forecast for housing starts is 190,000 units for 2012, followed by a slight increase to 193,800 in 2013.

Housing starts growth will be regionally mixed in 2012. All four western provinces will have positive growth in 2012, while all six eastern provinces will see a contraction. By 2013 there will be more broad-based growth. In 2013, the western provinces, particularly British Columbia and Alberta, will again lead the way in terms of growth.

Single-detached to moderate

Single starts decreased to 82,392 units in 2011 from the post-recession recovery of 92,554 units in 2010. The number of single-detached starts is expected to be stable at 82,700 in 2012. An increase is expected for 2013, when single starts will move to 86,300, up 4.4 per cent from 2012.

Multi-family starts to moderate

After experiencing strong growth in 2010 and 2011, the number of multi-family housing starts, which consist of row, semi-detached and apartment units, is expected to moderate in 2012. Looking ahead to 2013, relative stability will occur. Overall, there will be about 107,300 multiple unit starts in 2012 and about 107,500 units in 2013.

Markets to remain balanced

Over the course of 2011, new listings outpaced existing home sales. As a consequence, the resale market remained in balanced market conditions. Moving forward, we expect balanced market conditions to prevail and the average MLS® price to remain relatively stable at a rate roughly in line with inflation to the end of 2013. The average MLS® price is forecast to be between $330,000 and $410,000 in 2012 and between $335,000 and $430,000 in 2013. CMHC’s point forecast for the average MLS® price is $368,900 in 2012, while 2013 will see an increase to $379,000.

 

 

 

 

Jayesh Bhavsar

Jayesh Bhavsar

Broker
CENTURY 21 New Star Realty Inc., Brokerage*
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