2014-2015 Housing Market Outlook (Province of Quebec)

MONTREAL May 22, 2014 — According to the latest forecasts conducted by, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Quebec housing starts will amount to 37,600 units in 2014 and 38,700 units in 2015.

“In Quebec, moderate economic and employment growth will hold back demand for existing and new homes in 2014 and 2015. In addition, relatively high inventories of new and existing dwellings will constrain the number of housing starts. The expected levels of demand and supply will translate into marginal price growth in most markets,” said Kevin Hughes, CMHC Regional economist for the province of Quebec.

Starts of single-detached homes will decline to the 12,100 level in 2014. As the resale market begins to tighten, demand for new single-detached homes will increase, and translate into 13,300 starts next year.

After coming back down last year, to a level that is more in line with the demographic trends, multiple unit housing starts will record similar levels this year and next. This market segment will continue to be supported by its relative lower price in comparison to new single-detached homes. Further growth will be held back by relatively high levels of supply of new and resale housing, which will limit the need for additional building. Starts of multiple unit dwellings will be at 25,500 units in 2014 and 25,400 in 2015.

Sales of existing houses recorded by Centris® should remain stable this year, in line with moderate employment growth. Following a certain decline in the last two quarters, resales will recover and reach the 71,600 level this year. Like the rest of the country, buying conditions will be somewhat impeded by the eventual slightly higher interest rates. Nonetheless, 73,700 Centris® resales will be achieved next year as more robust labour markets push up demand.

With lower demand and higher supply, prices of resale homes will post marginal growth during the forecast horizon. A gradual return to more balanced market conditions will keep price growth between the one and two per cent mark this year and next. As a result, the average price recorded by Centris® will reach $266,300 this year and $270,000 in 2015.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions

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Jennifer Radowitz

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