Whenever I say that people say, "You're Realtor you have to be optimistic". It's funny that in 2007 I was called a killjoy and a pessimist when I said the correction is coming. As was expected the numbers are very positive for 2014. I was talking to a Realtor at another brand over the holidays and in his opinion the Alberta oil prices are finally going to push the economy and the Real Estate Market over the edge and the bubble will burst. I asked him what he based his opinion on. He if I had been paying attention to oil prices. I asked him if he knew what percentage of our buyers in the Okanagan came from Alberta. He said, "it has to be close to half"...November report was 15.1%. People have been calling for the proverbial bubble to burst since before, during and after it actually did burst a few years ago. The cycle is pretty consistent and we are in the recovery leg of the cycle. For now there is no indication in our stats that this year will be anything but as good or better than 2014. Like all of the market drivers, oil prices in Alberta should be viewed at from both sides of the fence. First, it is only one factor. Other factors are creating positive pressure on the market; employment is rising, Vancouver is rising, the States are rising, the lower dollar against the greenback is promoting our lumber industry. The other thing about lower oil prices is it puts a little more money in the hands of consumers to spend elsewhere. For every factor there is a positive and a negative. The 5 main statistics we track; inventory,absorption, DOM (Days on the Market to Sell), sales activity and prices have consistently shown to be reliable predictors for the Real Estate market in the immediate future ie: 6 to 18 months out. All of these stats point towards a good 2015. Have a great year folks.
Posted by Bill Hubbard on January 6, 2015 (C21 Blog)