November 24, 2014 — Results from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) House Price Analysis and Assessment (HPAA) framework were released today indicating that overall, housing markets in Canada remain broadly consistent with underlying demographic and economic factors such as employment and interest rates. Nevertheless, a modest amount of overvaluation is observed, meaning that house prices are slightly higher than what the underlying factors would suggest.
“At the national level, other than a modest amount of overvaluation, we do not detect the presence of other risk factors such as overheating, price acceleration, and overbuilding,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist. “Risk of overvaluation is most evident in Montreal and Quebec, but the trend is improving. A modest risk of overvaluation is also present in Toronto, Calgary and Halifax. Across the 8 CMAs examined, there is no overheating or acceleration.”
“There is however a cautionary note with respect to overbuilding in Toronto and Montreal. The number of units under construction is elevated in these centres. This could develop into overbuilding if these units are completed but not sold. To mitigate this risk, builders will need to hit the appropriate balance in channeling new demand between units that are currently under construction but not sold and units that are in the planning stage,” noted Mr. Dugan.