The fall season is upon us which means more than 'summer is over' and 'back to school'. For over 800 Single Family Residential homeowners in the North Okanagan, it means that the fall real estate market is here.
What exactly does this mean and what can we expect? The best indicator of where we're going is to look at where we've been. To look at the August inventory and sales numbers are meaningless unless you have something to compare them to in order to give some perspective. Here's our current and historical stats back to 2007:
Single Family Residential Homes - North Okanagan
Total Listings by August 31st Total Year-To-Date-Sales
2010 822 502
2009 722 548
2008 829 544
2007 497 876
Each month this year, we have consistently seen inventory rise higher than the historical peak in 2008. In August, the numbers are virtually on par with 2008, however I suspect we'll see an inventory spike again in September as people tend to bring their homes to market in the fall.
As I said, the best indicator of where we're going is where we've been. In September 2008, just 5% (the Absorption Rate) of all the Single Family Residential Homes sold. In August of this year, 6.6% of the homes listed sold and in looking at the historical numbers, September dips slightly in Absorption Rate over August with the exception of 2009.
So, the number of Single Family Residential Homes that I predict will sell in September is between the September 2008's Absorption Rate and the August, 2010 Absorption Rate, so around 5.5% or about 45 homes. A big dip over September 2009 where 13% of listed homes sold for a total of 90.
The bottom line has not changed. Only homes listed at market value will sell. There are not enough buyers in the market to increase the Absorption Rate and bring the inventory down. As long as we have high inventory, we will remain in a buyer's market - which is not going to change this fall.
The question is then, how do you sell your home in this market? All this market information needs to be applied specifically to your your home, in your neighborhood. In any type of market, homes sell. To achieve this, attracting a buyer will be based on an objective and supportable market analysis together with a plan that exposes your home to those buyers by going to where the buyers are.
If you would like to know how your home fits into this market or would like to discuss how I market homes, please give me a call at 250-549-2103 or send me an email.
Written by Paige Gregson with statistical information from the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board.