AREA predicts decrease in prices and sales for real estate 2009
I'm in Banff today, at the Banff Western Connection Conference. A conference geared towards Realtors and Real Estate Associations from Western Canada. It is also open to Realtors from all over not just the western provinces. While it is not surprising that we are hearing a prediction regarding a decline in real estate as that has already been happening for a while now. If you've been reading my posts you already know this. Each week I've been posting "Weekly Real Estate Updates", and many of those updates in the last 4 months have illustrated the direction Real Estate Transactions and price have been taking.
Being from Red Deer and somewhat of a stats guy (I love looking at the numbers), I was perked up at the point of the presentation regarding sales etc... The forecast for BC and Alberta were/are for declines, and these declines are predicted to be larger in BC and AB than the rest of Canada (2 - 5% decreases in price). No real basis for that other than because real estate shot up so dramatically in 2006, and 2007. A natural correction to supply and demand I suppose. I was disappointed in the lack of regional content. The data centred on MLS data from Calgary and Edmonton and an Alberta average or index. Real Estate is Local, show me local stuff or regional stuff. Alas nothing was produced. It was all at national and provincial levels. Really nothing new that you haven't already been ready or getting from watching news.
I repeat, Real Estate is Local.
Red Deer has always been insulated from the dramatic swings that the two larger cities experience. Calgary is usually the first city to experience rapid increases and decreases when they occur. The wave follows the QE2 north to Red Deer losing momentum along the way. Edmonton has Calgary envy or something because a few months after Calgary it's like they all say "oh yeah we can do better than that". Increases in Edmonton shoot up and the capital city is booming and at a rate higher than Calgary. Unfortunately when that happens they see a bigger drop too. The folks here in Red Deer just bob up and down a little bit and let the two bigger brothers (or sisters) create the drama.
You don't have to take my word for it you can ask the Realtors in Red Deer that are still around after 25 years and they will tell you the same thing. My mom, has told me that as she has seen these shifts occurring for 30 years. From the national energy crisis, and the recession of the 80's. I happen to think we're a tad more conservative and laid back in Red Deer. We watch the trends happening, and enjoy the upside, but we're also more prudent and cautious as we rise so when we back off the drop is a gentler one. Leave the thrill ride to the big city slickers i guess.
Local Real Estate predictions for 2009?
What's your predictions?
The beauty of predictions are they are educated guesses. Much like your educated guesses in school on the multiple guess exams, one answer is right, one less right, one more wrong, and one really wrong. I'll ponder my 2009 prediction this week and let you know soon. Until then email me yours.
Your Friend in Real estate,