The Canadian Real Estate Association just released its National Statistics for the month of February 2013. This is the first time in many months where the national average sale price was down. So the question is whether we have reached a peak in housing prices in the GTA, and specifically in the Thornhill/North-York area, or whether it is just a small correction.
Over the years, the Toronto Real Estate Board has been looking at various indicators which may assist in forecasting market direction. Among these indicators you can find the Affordability Indicator, the New-Listings-to-Sold Ratio and Year-to-Year Activity Ratio.
In the last few months, we have noticed the following trends in the GTA:
- Activity (Actual Sales) is significantly down - 15% Less than last year
- Active Listings are significantly up - 10% over last year.
- Days-on-the-Market are up - 17% over the last year.
What about the prices? In March 2012 to August 2012, we have seen price growth. This has dramatically changed in the months which followed. Initially, prices flattened; and then, we started seeing declines. February 2013 prices were still 2.1% higher than prices in February 2012. (Compare this with an over 8% increase in housing prices during the winter months of 2012.) Thus, home prices in February 2013 represent the lowest growth since 2009. (Note that the low growth rates of 2009 reflected modest growth rates following the 2008 recession, during which prices went down 10%.)
If you are thinking of selling real estate in the next 12 to 24 months, you may wish to list your property in the near future, rather than risk losing money due to a possible price correction.