Increase in Sales and Relative Price Stability
Due primarily to historically low mortgage rates, the real estate market in Québec in 2015
will remain conducive to the purchase of a home. A slight improvement in the job market
and positive net migration should result in a modest increase in the number of residential
transactions this year. However, little pressure will be exerted on prices due to the supply of
properties for sale, which has been increasing for the past four years. As a result, we expect
only a slight increase in the median price of single-family homes in Québec in 2015.
2014 Fell Short of our Expectations:
With 70,686 sales concluded in Québec in 2014, the residential real estate market was less
dynamic than we expected. The 3 per cent increase in sales that we forecasted instead gave
way to a slight decrease of 1 per cent compared to 2013. The poor performance of the job
market and tepid consumer confidence in 2014 were the main culprits behind the mixed sales
results that were observed across the province. In fact, 33,400 full-time jobs were lost last
year in Québec, the largest decrease in full-time employment since 1992. In addition, the
percentage of Québec consumers who felt it was a good time to make a major purchase, such
as a property, was at its lowest level since 2008.
In terms of prices, as expected, the median price of single-family homes in Québec stood at
$227,000 in 2014, a very slight 1 per cent increase compared to 2013.