Ministry of Natural Resources
Thursday, April 10, 2014
The Ministry of Natural Resources - Bancroft District is advising area residents that a Flood
Warning is in effect in the District.
Residents of Bancroft District should take necessary action to protect property and monitor
developing conditions closely. People are asked to stay away from fast-moving rivers and
MNR is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions. Further
updates will be issued as appropriate.
Description of Weather System
This message is being sent on the basis of information received from MNR - Surface Water
Monitoring Centre, MNR - Aviation Forest Fire and Emergency Management Services, Trent
Severn Waterway and Environment Canada.
Warmer temperatures are expected to continue over the next five days with daytime highs of
+10 degrees C with the potential for 15mm of rain Thursday through Friday. We are
monitoring a large weather system that is set to move in to the province Saturday evening
and remain over the weekend and into early next week. If the storm hits our region as is
currently forecasted, we could receive 50+mm of rain from Saturday night through Monday
with a five day precipitation total of 80-100mm.
Description of Current Conditions
Although some of the snowpack has melted over the last week, a significant amount of snow
is still present. There is a snow water equivalent in the snowpack of approximately 115-
120mm. Mild temperatures combined with the significant forecasted rainfall will rapidly melt
the remaining snow and will quickly increase water levels and flow velocities in local rivers
and streams. Smaller streams and creeks are expected to respond quickly to the additional
runoff, but larger water bodies, including the reservoir lakes, will take longer to react.
Municipalities and residents should closely monitor low lying and flood prone areas
along the Burnt, Irondale, Gull, and Black Rivers as well as the York and Madawaska
These water bodies are expected to respond quickly to the rapidly melting snow and
forecast rainfall. Additional water accumulation in areas adjacent to watercourses, road
ditches and areas with poor drainage will occur. Road overtopping is possible in some
locations. With the combination of double digit temperatures, forecasted precipitation and
remaining ice cover on local lakes and rivers, there is the potential for ice jams to form which
could contribute to elevated water levels and flooding.
The water levels of the reservoir lakes are rising at a slow rate. Trent-Severn Waterway
(TSW) officials advise that the winter drawdown of the lakes has created significant storage
capacity and currently there are no flooding concerns for lake shoreline areas. TSW staff
assess the situation daily and undertake dam operations as required. The MNR and the
TSW continue to closely monitor local lakes and rivers as the freshet progresses.
The MNR is in regular communication with partner agencies, including Conservation
Authorities, Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and the TSW.
This message will expire on Monday, April 14 2014, 12:00 PM
Terminology: Notification Levels
WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT - FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the
potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high
winds or other conditions
WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT
WATER SAFETY: indicates that high flows,
melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters, anglers and
swimmers but flooding is not expected.
FLOOD WATCH: potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities
FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and
For more information please contact:
MNR Bancroft District Office
Paul Shalla, A/IRM Technical Specialist, Bancroft District, 613-332-3940 x208
MNR Minden Field Office
Kris Windover, IRM Technical Specialist, Minden Field Office, Bancroft District, 705-286-
A close watch on local conditions and weather forecasts from Environment Canada is
recommended. Environment Canada bulletins can be found at
The Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage can be found here: