Second consecutive monthly price decline in October


Canadian home prices in October were down 0.4% from the previous month, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™. This retreat followed a September monthly decline of 1.1% that ended a string of 16 consecutive increases in the composite index. Though prices were down in September in all six of the metropolitan markets surveyed, two cities showed a monthly rise in October - Halifax, 0.7%, and Vancouver, 0.1%. Vancouver's marginal gain followed three consecutive monthly declines. Montreal prices were flat from the month before. Prices were down 0.9% in Toronto, 0.3% in Ottawa and 1.0% in Calgary. For Calgary it was a third straight monthly decline.

Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

DECEMBER 2010

 

 

The October result was reflected in a further deceleration of the 12-month rise of the composite index, to 6.0%. It was the fourth consecutive month of deceleration, leaving the 12-month rise the smallest since the beginning of the year. Market by market, the 12-month changes ranged widely: increases of 8.5% in Ottawa, 7.3% in Vancouver and Montreal, 6.3% in Toronto and 4.0% in Halifax, a decrease of 0.2% in Calgary.

 

Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association show sales of existing homes increasing faster than new listings in most of the country's large urban markets in recent months, suggesting a tightening of market conditions toward year end.

 

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™

The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.

Metropolitan area Index level
October
% change m/m % change y/y
Calgary 155.25 -1.0 % -0.2 %
Halifax 128.99 0.7 % 4.0 %
Montreal 135.82 0.0 % 7.3 %
Ottawa 132.23 -0.3 % 8.5 %
Toronto 124.85 -0.9 % 6.3 %
Vancouver 154.97 0.1 % 7.3 %
National Composite 137.32 -0.4 % 6.0 %

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economy & Strategy Group
National Bank Financial Group

Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report.

1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.

 

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Shahzad Siddique

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