With the Autumn 2011 market now firmly underway, I wanted to convey my observations about the downtown Vancouver condo market to underscore what I have been observing for over a year now: Vancouver’s real estate market has “decoupled.”
Real estate sales activity and property values are moving very differently depending where you look. It’s no longer sufficient to rely on broad-brush stats published by the Board. If you want to understand the downtown condo market, property values in specific neighbourhoods such as Coal Harbour or even more specifically in a specific tower, you need to dig deeper. I offer the following examples:
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver recently published the following info about active listings:
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totaled 5,680 in September, the third highest volume for September in 17 years. This represents a 20.1 per cent increase compared to September 2010 when 4,731 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and a 21.2 per cent increase compared to the 4,685 new listings reported in August 2010.
A more in depth analysis of listings in Downtown and it’s sub-neighbourhoods reveal the following: Active listings for the entire downtown (west) area totalled 1,149 on Oct 1 compared to 1,174 Sept 1. That’s a decrease of 2%. Coal Harbour showed a decrease from 189 active listings to 172. That’s a 9% decrease. Downtown showed a 4% decrease while West End showed a 9% increase and Yaletown showed a 2% decrease.
In terms of sales, the Board recently published the following:
Sales of apartment properties reached 922 in September 2011, a 5 per cent decrease compared to the 971 sales in September 2010, and a decrease of 38.1 per cent compared to the 1,489 sales in September 2009.
My research shows total sales in the entire downtown west area of 188 for September 2011, a change of -3% from August. Coal Harbour sales totaled 26, a -4% change from August. Downtown showed an increase of 4%, West End an increase of 5% and Yaletown a -27% change from August to September.
Record Setting Season
Kimmins and Associates sales of Coal Harbour luxury waterfront condo listings increased dramatically in the last 2 months. Our sales were steady from January to April, then we saw a lull in activity May through July and have been experiencing a surge September to present. At our current rate of 5 sales per month, September to present has been solid both in terms of volume and price.
Almost every sale we have made recently has set a new highest-price record within the development for the type/plan of the suite sold. This differs significantly from recent industry press releases and media headlines which show listings up, sales down and prices down. In Coal Harbour, Kimmins and Associates are currently experiencing activity that is 180 degrees out from published “averages”.
I’m not suggesting that these other sources are incorrect or inaccurate, but rather, that board-wide averages do not tell the whole story for each individual sub-area or neighbourhood. One must look more closely and that’s why it’s paramount that you employ a specialist in your area when it’s time to sell.
If you’d like more information on the value of your property or what’s going on in a particular area, please don’t hesitate to contact us.