June 1, 2010
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released a revised national housing forecast for the remainder of 2010 and 2011. Nationally, they are still predicting home prices and sales will edge up this year, but both will see declines in 2011. For BC, CREA is now predicting a six per cent decrease in sales this year compared to last and for 2011, average prices in BC will decline 3.5 per cent.
Two main reasons are cited for this revision: the slowdown in sales in BC during the first quarter of this year and overall market conditions that pushed purchasers in Canada to buy sooner than they would have.
Similarly, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) forecasts home sales in Metro Vancouver will drop in 2010 compared to last year and flatten in 2011 because first-time homebuyers who would have entered the market were enticed to buy in 2009 due to low interest rates.
CMHC is forecasting that Metro Vancouver will see 35,000 property sales on the MLS® in 2010, 3.5 per cent fewer than in 2009. They're also projecting a further sales decline of three per cent in 2011, indicating that this year and next will be dominated by move-up buyers who make up a smaller segment of the market.