CMHC Saskatchewan Market Housing Outlook

Courtesy: CMHC

After a decline in 2009, housing starts will gradually rise over the forecast period. Total housing starts are
forecasted to increase to 4,650 units in 2010 and move higher over the coming years to about 5,250 units in
2014. Saskatchewan’s economy is expected to rebound in 2010 and grow by over three per cent in 2011. Rising
earnings and employment gains in Saskatchewan will support a higher level of housing demand moving forward. Demographic factors in Saskatchewan will continue to support housing demand. Netmigration is projected to remain at elevated levels through the next five years, as migrants are attracted by a low unemployment rate and job opportunities. Gains from migration will be primarily from people coming from outside of Canada rather than from interprovincial migrants.

The economy is projected to rise by 2.9 per cent in 2010 and then to grow by 3.2 per cent in 2011. Drilling activity is projected to rise as a result of higher oil prices. Investment in the potash industry and uranium will continue in anticipation of a recovery. Overall, investment intentions in Saskatchewan are projected to be up 5.5 per cent from last year, adding support to provinical economic growth this year and next. The improved economy in 2011 will be reflected by stronger job growth, lower unemployment rates, and higher wages.
Demographic factors in Saskatchewan will continue to support housing demand. Net migration is projected
to remain at elevated levels in 2010 and 2011. The source of migrants is shifting from provincial migration, and gains will be primarily from people coming from outside of Canada. 

Multi-family starts will rise modestly in 2010, reaching 1,250 units and then rise again in 2011 to 1,350 units. So far this year, local builders have been cautiously ramping up production, particularly in the province’s smaller centres. Accordingly, the share of starts occurring outside of the province’s two largest centres will be historically
high in 2010 as concerns over rising inventories in the larger centres and elevated levels of migration to
Saskatchewan’s smaller centres create a strong draw for multi-family units. The province’s larger centres will
regain a larger share of activity in 2011 as inventories decrease gradually through 2010.

Resales: The slower pace of price increases coupled with historically low mortgage rates have improved affordability and stimulated demand, placing most markets in balanced conditions. Over the forecast period,
the province’s economic recovery will become more firmly entrenched. This
will support a higher level of resales in 2010 and in 2011.

Prices: The average MLS® price in Saskatchewan will increase by 2.4 per cent to 239,300 in 2010 and then increase by 3.3 per cent to over 247,000 in 2011.

The Matthew Olsgard Team

The Matthew Olsgard Team

CENTURY 21 Fusion
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