The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS® ) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations for 2015 and 2016.
Low rise property markets remain tight in parts of British Columbia and Ontario. These are the only two provinces where a shortage of listings for low rise homes is expected to fuel average price gains above inflation this year.
The forecast for national average home price growth has been revised upward to $429,400 for an annual increase of 5.2 per cent in 2015. This reflects forecast average price gains in British Columbia and Ontario together with a projected increase in their proportion of national sales. British Columbia is expected to be the only province where average price rises faster (8.5 per cent) than the national average, while the rise in Ontario’s average price (5.6 per cent) is predicted to be roughly in line with the national increase.
The national average price is forecast to rise by a further 1.7 per cent to $436,700 in 2016, with larger percentage increases in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario. Price growth in 2016 is forecast to be strongest in Ontario (+2.6 per cent) due to an ongoing supply shortage of listings for low rise homes in and around the Greater Toronto Area. An improvement in the share of higher-priced sales activity is anticipated to boost average prices in Alberta (+2.4 per cent).